Rogers dry lake might get a little wet this winter Published Sept. 1, 2026 By Gary Davis, Weather Flight Chief 412th Operations Squadron EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Edwards Air Force Base is famous for its wide-open desert horizon, boasting clear, sunny skies nearly year-round that make it an ideal hub for premier flight testing. However, as winter approaches, a familiar climate phenomenon may shake up the forecast: El Niño. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellites show changes in sea surface temperature departures from average across the tropical Pacific Ocean from Jan. 1 through June 8, 2026. (NOAA Animation) El Niño, a periodic warming of sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, peaks in late fall and winter, shifting global wind and rainfall patterns. While it arrives irregularly every two to seven years, its local footprint across Southern California's High Desert is far from predictable. El Niño typically drives wetter, cooler weather across the southern United States, but it does not guarantee a soaking at Edwards. A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration map illustrates the typical impacts of El Niño across the continental U.S. and Canada during the Northern Hemisphere winter. (NOAA image) Local terrain, storm tracks, forward speed and moisture levels all influence whether rain reaches the basin. A powerful Pacific storm can drench coastal communities while leaving the High Desert virtually dry. Conversely, a weaker storm track can trigger significant winter precipitation over the base. For flight test and airfield operations, El Niño weather patterns can cause low cloud ceilings, poor visibility from fog or rain, gusty crosswinds, turbulence and aircraft icing in colder layers. Heavy downpours are not needed to stall a mission. A passing front can swiftly bring hazardous winds, low clouds, and rapid visibility drops with minimal rainfall. On the ground, precipitation creates a different set of challenges. When rainwater collects on Rogers and Rosamond dry lakebeds, the surfaces can stay saturated and unusable long after skies clear. Because these natural expanses serve as critical emergency landing sites, standing water directly impacts recovery options and flight test safety margins. Long-range seasonal outlooks offer valuable broad trends, helping flight testers, engineers and mission planners anticipate broad seasonal patterns months in advance. However, day-to-day execution depends on precision short-range forecasting. The 412th Operations Squadron Weather Flight monitors atmospheric shifts continuously, providing targeted terminal aerodrome forecasts, special weather statements, and hazard advisories alongside official National Weather Service watches and warnings. Historical rainfall totals during the November-to-March window highlight this variability against the base's average of 3.85 inches. In 2002-2003, El Nino brought a total of 4.96 inches of rain to the installation. In 2004-2005, that number increased to 10.16 inches, but decreased drastically to 0.69 inches in 2006-2007, just to increase again to 4.91 inches in 2009-2010. More recently, the very strong 2015-2016 El Niño produced only 1.56 inches at Edwards AFB. During the historic 1997–98 event, rainfall reached nearly triple the seasonal norm. A Department of the Interior geological survey noted this level of precipitation has an estimated recurrence interval of 50 to 100 years, with the heaviest runoff concentrating across paved areas and base housing rather than natural desert channels. While a repeat of the extreme 1997–98 winter remains unlikely, mission success depends on proactive preparation. Staying informed through updated daily forecasts ensures aircrews and base personnel stay ahead of whatever weather the High Desert brings.