ASC to deploy new acquisition risk tool set Published May 16, 2006 By JoAnne Rumple Aeronautical Systems Center Public Affairs WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, Ohio -- The Air Force has a new tool in its acquisition arsenal, one which allows decision makers to better evaluate risks involved before starting up or changing weapon system programs. Aeronautical Systems Center helped develop that tool - called the Probability of Program Success model - and has already begun deploying it to acquisition wings, groups and squadrons. Brig. Gen. David Eichhorn, ASC vice commander, said PoPS is designed to give program managers a better handle on risks by highlighting all elements that contribute to program success. "We have to remember," he said, "that there's more to a successful program than just the mission; we also have to consider business aspects and what higher headquarters, warfighters and Congress want from us." Steve Miller, ASC director of acquisition excellence, said the tool also gives acquisition commanders a better look at risks for their entire portfolio and will help discussions between the Air Force acquisition community and decision-makers who want to start up or make major changes to programs. "ASC has done other kinds of risk management on its acquisition programs for a long time," Mr. Miller said. "For example, we hold risk workshops with program teams to help them develop their acquisition strategy, looking at decisions like the type of contract to be used, development time frame, technology incorporation and staffing. Our financial management and engineering experts also help with annual, integrated risk assessments." ASC's Acquisition Center of Excellence, part of Mr. Miller's team, is often involved in this second process that examines current and/or historical risks to program cost, schedule and performance, as well as potential solutions. "This new tool takes a predictive rather than historical approach," he said, adding that it's based on five major factors: resources, program execution, requirements, program advocacy at all levels of decision-making up through the Joint Staff and Congress, and how the program fits into Air Force and Department of Defense visions. "It allows us to help decision-makers predict how a new start--or even a major change to an existing program, like new requirements or a big manpower cut--will affect the risk. In other words, how it will affect the program's likelihood of delivering the needed capability. This will allow decision-makers to re-allocate resources like manpower, money and time if necessary; or to sign up to the risks involved if they decide not to reallocate." General Eichhorn added that the new tool allows center commanders, in many respects, to "triage" programs, deciding which are doing well and can be left as they are, which are "mortally wounded," and which are doing poorly but would benefit from additional resources.